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| #1153000 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 15.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 16 2023 Margot's satellite presentation has changed little since the previous advisory. A timely ASCAT-B overpass revealed peak winds of around 50 kt, and a rather expansive wind field over the northern semicircle of the storm. Since there is typically some undersampling from the ASCAT instrument, the initial intensity remains 55 kt for this advisory. This intensity is also in line with the latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate of T3.5 or 55 kt. Margot is moving south-southwestward at about 4 kt. The tropical storm should turn southwestward to westward during the next day or so as it completes a clockwise loop to the south of a mid-level ridge. By early next week, the ridge should continue to slide eastward allowing Margot to turn northward, and then east- northeastward later in the period. The track guidance has again trended toward a more southern and slower solution near the end of the period, and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Northerly vertical wind shear, marginal sea surface temperatures, and dry air entrainment are expected to cause gradual weakening during the next couple of days. Margot may struggle to produce organized deep convection in a couple of days, but an approaching mid-latitude trough may aid in at least a continuation of convective bursts keeping Margot a tropical cyclone. By day 4, Margot is forecast to be post-tropical as simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest the system will become devoid of convection after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 35.5N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 35.0N 38.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 34.4N 40.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 34.6N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 35.3N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 36.9N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 38.6N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 38.5N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/0000Z 38.2N 31.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |
