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| #1153004 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 15.Sep.2023) TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 44.7W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 44.7W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 44.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 45.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.1N 47.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.3N 50.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.7N 52.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 26.0N 54.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 29.3N 57.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 34.1N 58.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 44.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
