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| #1153040 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 16.Sep.2023) TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 45.3W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 45.3W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.6N 46.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.5N 48.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.1N 49.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N 51.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.9N 53.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 27.2N 55.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 31.0N 58.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 35.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 45.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN |
