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| #1153127 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 16.Sep.2023) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 39.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......220NE 150SE 90SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 240SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 39.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 39.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.1N 40.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.6N 42.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.8N 42.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.1N 41.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.2N 39.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.2N 36.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 37.4N 32.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 37.5N 29.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 39.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAHONEY/BUCCI |
