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| #1153169 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 16.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023 Strong northerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air have taken a toll on Margot during the past 24 hours. Deep convection became displaced to the south of the center earlier today, and within the past 6 hours or so, the deep convection has essentially dissipated. The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt, which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T and CI numbers from TAFB. Margot has completed a clockwise loop over the past few days, and the storm is now moving westward at 7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Margot should steer the cyclone westward to west-northwestward for about another 24 hours. After that time, the ridge is predicted to slide eastward and then southward causing Margot to turn northward, and then east-northeastward to eastward around the northern side of the ridge. The track guidance continues to be in good agreement with this scenario and only minor adjustments to the previous NHC track were needed. The environment ahead of Margot is not expected to improve during the next couple of days. Moderate to strong shear and dry air is likely to prevent the return of organized deep convection during the next day or two, Margot is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone during that time. On Monday night into Tuesday, the cyclone is forecast to interact with an approaching mid-latitude trough that could produce enough instability to allow for a return of deep convection and some slight restrengthening. Shortly after that time, northwesterly shear and another surge of dry air should cause a gradual spin down of the winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 33.9N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 34.1N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 35.1N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 36.5N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 37.9N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1200Z 38.3N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 20/0000Z 37.8N 35.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/0000Z 37.0N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z 37.6N 29.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |
