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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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#1153205 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 17.Sep.2023)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.6W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 75SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.6W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 48.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.5N 49.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 27.5N 52.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 28.8N 54.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.5N 55.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.7N 55.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 38.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 44.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 48.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN