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| #1153521 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 19.Sep.2023) TCDAT5 Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2023 Nigel continues to exhibit a large eye about 50 n mi across on satellite images this morning. The surrounding deep convection has intensified somewhat over the southern and western portions of the circulation, and the overall cloud pattern is fairly symmetrical. The current intensity estimate is increased to 80 kt in agreement with the latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the hurricane shortly and should provide a more accurate estimate of Nigel`s intensity. There is still about one more day for the hurricane to intensify while it remains over SSTs near 28 deg C with weak vertical wind shear. Therefore, the official forecast shows some short-term strengthening and this is generally above the model guidance. In 48 to 72 hours, the dynamical model guidance shows a large increase in shear which, along with cooler waters, should result in weakening. By 72 hours, the global model forecast indicates that Nigel will become a frontal low over the northern Atlantic and this is shown in the official forecast. As noted earlier, the track forecast for Nigel appears to be straightforward. The system is currently moving northwestward along the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone. In 12 to 24 hours, Nigel should turn northward while it moves around the high. Afterwards, the system is likely to accelerate northeastward to the southeast and south of a strong mid-level trough. In 3-5 days, Nigel is expected to rotate around the eastern side of a large extratropical low over the North Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 30.5N 54.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 32.3N 54.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 35.0N 54.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 38.0N 51.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 41.0N 46.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 43.8N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 46.5N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/1200Z 54.0N 20.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/1200Z 59.0N 21.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
