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| #1153553 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 19.Sep.2023) TCMAT5 HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 54.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 54.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 54.7W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.7N 54.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 36.7N 53.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 45SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.8N 49.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 45SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.8N 42.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 45.7N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 210SE 170SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 48.6N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 170SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 56.0N 20.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 58.0N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 54.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART |
