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| #1153845 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 21.Sep.2023) TCDAT5 Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023 900 PM GMT Thu Sep 21 2023 Nigel`s satellite presentation has begun to degrade as increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear has caused the deep convection to become displaced to the northeast of the low-level center. A blend of the latest Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers and the objective estimates yields an initial intensity estimate of 70 kt. A continued increase in vertical wind shear and cooler waters along the track of Nigel should cause additional weakening. Nigel is expected to quickly complete its extratropical transition by 12 hours, and only gradual weakening is forecast after that time. The storm has grown in size, and a continue expansion of the 34-kt wind field is expected during the next couple of days. Nigel is moving east-northeastward or 060/32 kt. An east- northeastward to northeastward motion along the southeastern side of a strong deep-layer mid-latitude trough is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Nigel should rotate around the eastern side of a large extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic. The dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast is near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 43.7N 40.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 46.0N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 22/1800Z 49.4N 27.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/0600Z 53.6N 23.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1800Z 57.0N 24.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/0600Z 57.5N 25.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
