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| #1154070 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 22.Sep.2023) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...OPHELIA`S CENTER FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY... ...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 76.8W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 76.8 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will reach the coast of North Carolina early Saturday, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall along the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is expected after landfall through the rest of the weekend, and Ophelia is likely to become extratropical by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals recently reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to 71 mph (115 km/h). An observation at Poquoson River Light in Virginia reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the coast of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the warning area and will continue spreading northward through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area early Saturday. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall: Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3 to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 7 inches into Sunday morning. Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches tonight through Sunday. Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3 inches Saturday into Monday. This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is possible in areas of heavier rainfall. SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
