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| #1154110 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 23.Sep.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 WSR-88D radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City, North Carolina, show that the center of Ophelia is approaching the North Carolina coastline with landfall likely within the next couple of hours. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the system during the last several hours and have found that central pressure of Ophelia has dropped a few millibars to 980 mb this morning, with highest flight-level winds on the eastern side of the system. Using the standard surface wind reduction from flight-level suggest that maximum surface winds are likely between 60-65 kt. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt based on a combination of the flight-level winds and velocity data from Doppler radar. Ophelia`s motion has been fairly erratic the past several hours as it approaches the coast. The current estimated motion is is north-northwestward (345 degrees) at 8 kt. Ophelia is moving around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge and is expected to turn more northward today and then northeastward the next few days. On this track the center of Ophelia will move inland over North Carolina in a few hours, and then across portions of southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula tonight and Sunday. There was very little change in the forecast with just a slight rightward shift in about 36 h over the Delmarva. This forecast is in fairly good agreement with the global model guidance. Ophelia will be making landfall in North Carolina within a few hours and the intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement with steady weakening and winds should drop below tropical-storm-force in about a day or so. The system is forecast to become extratropical by 36 hours, although simulated satellite imagery and models suggest this transition could happen near or just beyond 24 h. The extratropical low will dissipate over the Delmarva Peninsula when it becomes absorbed within a frontal zone. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area early this morning. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Heavy rainfall from this system may produce locally considerable flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday. 4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S. east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 34.3N 76.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 35.5N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/0600Z 37.0N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1800Z 38.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/0600Z 39.0N 75.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi |
