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| #1154211 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 23.Sep.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Ophelia continues to weaken as it crosses into southeastern Virginia. The radar presentation has been gradually degrading as the Doppler velocities continue to decrease. However, there remains a WeatherFlow station in Pamlico Sound reporting surface winds between 30-35 kt. In addition, an earlier scatterometer pass also showed tropical-storm-force winds well to the northeast in association with an offshore frontal boundary. Thus, Ophelia will remain a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt for this advisory. Ophelia is still moving northward at 360/10 kt. Little has changed with the forecast reasoning, as Ophelia should gradually turn northeastward over the next 12-24 hours, with the center gradually losing definition as it begins to merge with the aforementioned frontal boundary off the mid-Atlantic coastline. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast is quite similar, if just a touch north, of the prior forecast. Ophelia should continue to gradually spin down inland, though higher winds may still continue to be observed with the frontal boundary to the system`s northeast. By tomorrow, Ophelia is expected to merge with this frontal boundary, marking its transition to post-tropical status, with the system expected to become fully absorbed by early next week. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening along portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward along the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coastline within the Tropical Storm Warning area. 2. Storm surge inundation will continue through this evening over portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, including Pamlico Sound and the tidal rivers of the lower Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Heavy rainfall from Ophelia may produce locally considerable flash and urban flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday. 4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S. east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 36.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/0600Z 37.9N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1800Z 39.1N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 25/0600Z 39.6N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ Forecaster Papin |
