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| #1154599 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 26.Sep.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2023 Philippe continues to struggle due to strong west-southwesterly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level low to its northwest. The low-level center is completely exposed and deep convection remains well removed to the east of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 42 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is nudged downward to 40 kt. The strong shear is not expected to let up over the next several days, which should keep the storm asymmetric and weak. A combination of the shear and dry air entrainment should lead to a gradual decay, and simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Philippe will likely degenerate into a remnant low in 3 or 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and now shows the system becoming a remnant low by day 4. Philippe continues to move westward, and it has not gained much latitude over the past 24 hours due to its sheared structure. Based on the previous track, the expected asymmetric structure, and the new model guidance, the NHC track forecast is again shifted to the left as Philippe is expected to continue to move in the low- to mid-level flow. This forecast lies on the southern side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.3N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 17.9N 51.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.9N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 19.8N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 20.7N 56.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 21.2N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 21.2N 59.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 21.2N 62.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 21.3N 65.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
