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| #1154643 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 26.Sep.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2023 Philippe remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical storm. The low-level center continues to pull away from the associated deep convection and is now located about 100 n mi west of a small area of thunderstorms. In fact, the system barely meets the convective criteria of a tropical cyclone. Despite the ragged satellite appearance, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt based on partial ASCAT data that showed a patch of tropical-storm-force winds well east of the center earlier today. The models are in agreement that strong shear will continue to affect Philippe during the next several days, which in combination with dry air entrainment should cause gradual weakening despite its passage over warm SSTs. Simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF models show Philippe losing all of its deep convection in a few days, and the NHC forecast continues to show Philippe becoming a remnant low by day 4. However, it would not be surprising if the system becomes a remnant low or opens into a trough sooner than that. Philippe has not gained any latitude since this time yesterday and all of the models have had a notable north bias during that time period. Based on recent trends and since Philippe is expected to stay a decoupled and weak system moving in the low-level flow, another shift to the left has been made in this forecast. This prediction lies near the southern side of the model guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.1N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 17.3N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 18.4N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 19.2N 56.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 19.7N 57.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 20.0N 59.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 20.1N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 20.2N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z 20.3N 67.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
