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| #1154717 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 27.Sep.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2023 Philippe continues to be a disorganized tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery shows a cloud pattern consisting of bursting deep convection in an amorphous-looking blob just east of the estimated center with a few areas of convection farther to the east and southeast. Although there was some evidence earlier of a convective band over the eastern periphery of the circulation, that feature has since broken up into less-organized patches of showers and thunderstorms. The current intensity estimate is held at 40 kt based on earlier scatterometer measurements. However, subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates suggest a weaker storm. Philippe is expected to remain in a sheared environment, and ingesting drier low- to mid-level air, over the next few days. Wind fields from both the ECMWF and GFS models show Philippe`s circulation weakening below tropical storm strength around 48 hours and beyond. Simulated satellite imagery from those models also depict the system as lacking sufficient organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone while it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The official intensity forecast, like the previous one, shows Philippe degenerating into a remnant low pressure area around 72 hours. The cyclone continues on a mainly westward heading at around 280/10 kt. Philippe is currently being steered by the flow to the south of a weak mid-level anticyclone, and is expected to move west-northwestward on the southwest side of this high during the next couple of days. In the latter part of the forecast period, the weakening and increasingly shallow system should turn toward the west-southwest following the low-level trade winds. The official track forecast has again been shifted a little southward in 3-5 days, following the TVCN consensus solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.6N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.4N 54.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.1N 55.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 19.6N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 19.6N 58.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 19.5N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 19.4N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 19.0N 64.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z 19.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch |
