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| #1154904 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 28.Sep.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2023 Philippe remains a very disorganized and elongated storm. Geostationary and microwave satellite images show a low-level circulation center well to the west of the mid-level center, where most of the deep convection is currently concentrated. The estimated center position shown in this advisory is roughly midway between those features, however confidence is very low on the storm`s position. In fact, it is possible that Philippe no longer has a well-defined center. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is near the high end of the satellite intensity estimates. The initial motion is highly uncertain since the storm is elongated and confidence in the initial position is very low. The track forecast is challenging, in part due to Philippe`s close proximity to newly formed Tropical Storm Rina. In the short term, a slow southwestward motion seems likely as Philippe moves in weak steering currents between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northeast and Rina to its east-southeast. By late in the weekend, a mid-level ridge is anticipated to build over the subtropical central Atlantic, and that feature should cause Philippe to turn sharply northward east of the northern Leeward Islands. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south for the first couple of days, but lies to the east of the previous forecast at days 4 and 5. This prediction is closest to the ECMWF model. The environmental conditions for Philippe no longer seem unfavorable given its expected to track to the east of the islands and not within a region of strong shear. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward and generally shows little change in strength during the next several days. This prediction still lies near the low end of the model guidance, however, so future advisories might show a higher intensity forecast if the guidance persists. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 18.6N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 55.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 18.6N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 18.4N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 18.0N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 17.6N 57.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 17.3N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 17.7N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 20.0N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/A Reinhart |
