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| #1154956 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 28.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2023 Tropical Storm Rina has not changed much this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery indicates that the center of circulation is mostly exposed to the northwest of persistent deep convective activity. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB both support an initial intensity of 35 kt for this advisory. A combination of Rina`s close proximity to Tropical Storm Philippe and moderate deep-layer northwesterly shear is likely to limit intensification in the short term. This shear is expected to increase this weekend and early next week, and it not forecast to abate during the forecast period. The NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope and is slightly lower than the prior forecast. While Rina is expected to remain a tropical storm throughout the forecast period, uncertainty in the intensity forecast is higher than normal due to the potential interaction with Philippe. Rina is moving northwestward, with an initial forward speed near 12 kt. The tropical storm should begin to turn more westward tonight and continue this general motion for the next several days. Early next week, the system is expected to turn northward and eventually northeastward as a mid-level ridge builds to the west. The NHC forecast is a blend of the prior forecast and the HCCA and TVCN consensus guidance throughout the forecast period. As with the intensity forecast, confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal due to uncertainty regarding the potential interaction of Rina with Tropical Storm Philippe during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 18.1N 46.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 18.8N 46.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 19.4N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 19.7N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 20.1N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 20.6N 51.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 21.5N 53.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 24.2N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 26.8N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi |
