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| #1155028 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 29.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023 Rina has become slightly better organized overnight. Deep, persistent convection, with cloud top temperatures less than -80 degrees C, has mostly obscured the low-level circulation. While the subjective satellite intensity estimates have risen this cycle to 45-55 kt, the objective estimates have generally held steady around 35 kt. The initial intensity is set to 40 kt to represent a blend of these estimates. The intensity forecast is still unusually complex and therefore, unclear. While Rina appears to be gradually strengthening, most models agree that Philippe, the tropical storm to its west, will become the stronger storm. As Philippe becomes better organized, Rina is expected to be sheared and subsequently weaken. By days 4 and 5, as Rina potentially moves away from the influence of Philippe, the GFS and ECMWF do not show the environmental conditions becoming any more conducive and continue to weaken Rina into a remnant low. Only minor adjustments have been made to the latest intensity forecast. Rina`s motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 340/4 kt. The storm is expected to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward through day 3. This is in part due to a binary interaction with Philippe and a mid-level ridge over the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Later in the forecast period, Rina is forecast to turn north-northwestward to northward in the flow between the subtropical ridge and an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic. There is still a large spread in the model solutions and thus, higher uncertainty in the track forecast, for the latter part of the forecast period. The model guidance envelope has generally shifted eastward this advisory cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been nudged in this direction. The official track forecast lies between the previous prediction and consensus aids, TVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 18.9N 46.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 19.3N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 19.8N 48.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 20.4N 49.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 21.1N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 22.0N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 23.3N 54.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 26.0N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 28.1N 55.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci |
