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| #1155071 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 29.Sep.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023 There has been little change in Philippe`s satellite appearance this morning. The storm remains sheared with the low-level center located near the western edge of the main area of deep convection. The satellite intensity estimates continue to have a large spread, ranging from 30 to 55 kt. ASCAT data should be available soon, and the Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Philippe this afternoon. Both of these datasets will provide a better assessment of Philippe`s intensity and structure. Philippe has only moved roughly 40 miles over the past 24 hours, and it has been generally drifting to the southwest during that time. The slow motion over the past day or so is due to its interaction with Tropical Storm Rina several hundred miles to its east. Since these tropical cyclones are expected to continue to interact through the weekend, Philippe is forecast to crawl southwestward during the next 2 or 3 days. After that time, Rina is expected to separate from Philippe as a mid-level ridge builds over the subtropical central Atlantic. In response, Philippe should turn sharply northward early next week. Although there remains a fair amount of spread in the models, they are in considerably better agreement today compared to the past couple of days. Overall, little change was made to the previous track forecast, and it continues to lie close to the various consensus models. Although Philippe is still being affected by shear, the environment over the next several days appears to become less hostile. Light to moderate wind shear, increasing mid-level humidities around the storm, and very warm SSTs should allow Philippe to gradually strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward again this cycle, but still lies on the lower end of the model guidance. Additional upward revisions seem likely if the guidance persists. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 18.3N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 18.1N 55.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 17.8N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 17.4N 56.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 17.3N 56.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 17.5N 56.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 18.4N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 21.5N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 26.1N 57.4W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
