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| #1155117 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 29.Sep.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2023 Satellite imagery shows the center of Philippe has become exposed again due to 15-20 kt of mid-level westerly shear. Deep convection is generally confined to the southeast portion, with a growing band to the south of the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Philippe this afternoon and found the minimum pressure to be 1002 mb and winds to support an intensity of 45 kt. Based on the aircraft and ASCAT data, tropical-storm-force winds extend well east and southeast of the center. Philippe is moving a little faster this afternoon, but still relatively slowly as it continues in a general southwest direction. The current track is due to its interaction with Tropical Storm Rina several hundred miles to its east. Since these tropical cyclones are expected to continue to interact through the weekend, Philippe is forecast to crawl southwestward through Sunday. After that time, Rina is expected to separate from Philippe as a mid-level ridge builds over the subtropical central Atlantic. In response, Philippe should turn sharply northward early next week. Recent guidance has shown an overall shift to the west, with the 12Z ECMWF model about 60 n mi west of its previous run. The NHC track forecast has also been nudged to the west toward the various consensus models. Although Philippe is still being affected by shear, the environment over the next couple of days appears to become less hostile. Moderate wind shear, upper-level diffluence, increasing mid-level humidities around the storm, and very warm SSTs should allow Philippe to gradually strengthen through the weekend. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast becomes more dependent on the future track. If Philippe tracks along the western side of the guidance, it will likely weaken due to stronger wind shear. Whereas, if the system tracks east of the NHC track, it could strengthen more than predicted due to more favorable environmental factors. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous cycle in the short term, but is still on the low end of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 18.0N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 17.6N 56.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.3N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 17.2N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 17.6N 57.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 18.3N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 19.5N 58.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 22.9N 58.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 26.9N 57.7W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
