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| #1155119 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 29.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2023 Strong northwesterly shear has caused the low-level center of Rina to become completely exposed today. The overall convective structure of the storm has deteriorated as well, with only small bursts of deep convection observed in satellite images well downshear of its center. An earlier scatterometer pass did not sample the core of the system, but still showed 30-35 kt winds well removed from the center in the southeast quadrant. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 30-45 kt, and the initial intensity is conservatively held at 40 kt this afternoon. A full scatterometer pass should be available this evening to better assess the current intensity of Rina. The tropical cyclone has turned northwestward and is accelerating, with an initial motion of 320/8 kt. This general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during couple of days while Rina moves around the northeastern periphery of the broader circulation associated with Tropical Storm Philippe. Thereafter, the shallow cyclone is forecast to separate from Philippe and turn north-northwestward between a subtropical ridge to the east and an approaching frontal system over the western Atlantic. There is still large spread in the track guidance regarding the extent and speed of this turn, with the GFS still on the western edge of the guidance. With this uncertainty in mind, the updated NHC forecast remains close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. The strong wind shear currently affecting Rina is unlikely to relent during the next couple of days. So despite warm SSTs along its path, Rina seems unlikely to sustain a more organized convective structure going forward, which is consistent with simulated satellite imagery from the global models. The NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening during the next several days, following the latest multi-model intensity consensus aids. By 96 h, Rina is forecast to open into a trough and/or merge with a frontal system. But if the center remains decoupled from the convection, it is possible that Rina degenerates into a remnant low even sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 20.0N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 20.5N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 21.4N 50.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 22.8N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 24.4N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 25.9N 55.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 27.8N 55.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster B. Reinhart/A. Reinhart |
