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| #1155189 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 30.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 Rina remains a sheared tropical cyclone. Deep bursts of convection have been flaring to the southeast of an exposed low-level circulation. However, recent trends in geostationary satellite imagery have shown the convection shrinking in areal coverage and becoming shallower. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T3.0 (45 kt) and T2.5 (35 kt) from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 45 kt in deference to the earlier scatterometer pass and the latest TAFB estimate. It is unlikely Rina will regain significant convective organization. Global model guidance indicates that the deep-layer vertical wind shear is likely to remain strong for the entirety of the forecast period. Simulated satellite imagery shows convection attempting to re-form near the center for the next couple of days, but it is quickly stripped away by the strong upper-level winds. The NHC intensity forecast shows Rina gradually weakening and becoming a remnant low in 48 h. Rina is moving to the west-northwest at 9 kt. Tropical Storm Philippe, to its west-southwest, and a subtropical mid-level ridge to the northeast are likely to steer Rina generally west-northwestward to northwestward through 48 h. Only minor adjustments have been made to the latest track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 20.9N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 21.7N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 22.9N 52.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 24.2N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 26.0N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1800Z 27.6N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci |
