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| #1155233 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 30.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 Satellite images show that Rina remains disorganized with any deep convection sheared off well southeast of the center. Intensity estimates are dropping, and ASCAT just came in with maximum winds just above 35 kt, so the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt. Strong shear should continue near the cyclone until it dissipates in 2-3 days. Model guidance is in relatively good agreement on this scenario, and the new intensity forecast is lower than before, showing remnant low status as the weekend closes. Rina continues moving west-northwestward, now at 10 kt. The storm should rotate northwestward and northward on the northern side of Philippe for the next couple of days. Thereafter, a weakened Rina is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure as it moves into the subtropics. The new track forecast is very similar to the last forecast, with no big changes to the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 21.2N 50.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 22.1N 51.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 23.5N 53.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 25.0N 55.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 27.0N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
