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| #1155284 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:05 PM 30.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 Visible satellite imagery shows the exposed center of Rina is well displaced from deep convection, as strong northwesterly shear continues to impact the storm. The intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of the subjective and objective satellite estimates. The intensity forecast shows gradual weakening through Sunday. Given Rina`s structural trends today, and model simulated IR satellite data over the next couple of days, the forecast shows Rina degenerating into a remnant low Sunday evening. The strong shear as diagnosed by SHIPS is expected to continue impacting Rina and its remnants until the cyclone dissipates early next week. Even if the shear isn`t enough to prevent convective reformation, Rina will likely struggle with dry mid-level relative humidities. Rina is now moving northwestward at a slightly faster 12 kt. The storm or its remnant low should continue to track northwestward and then northward along the northern periphery of Philippe for the next couple of days. The new track forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 22.6N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 23.5N 53.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 25.1N 54.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 27.0N 55.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z 29.0N 55.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Blake |
