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| #1155315 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 30.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 Satellite imagery this evening indicates that Rina is maintaining a well-defined center of circulation. However, strong northwesterly vertical shear continues to impact the storm, resulting in short-lived, episodic convection in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. Based on the limited convective activity, as well as subjective and objective satellite estimates, the intensity for this advisory is lowered to 35 kt. Not much has changed with the intensity forecast, with all reliable consensus aids suggesting that Rina will continue to gradually weaken. The large-scale environment appears unfavorable for further intensification due to low mid-level humidity and continued moderate northwesterly wind shear, as well as the detrimental influence of nearby Tropical Storm Philippe. Thus, the NHC forecast shows Rina gradually weakening through tomorrow and degenerating into a remnant low on Sunday. Rina is continuing to track northwestward at approximately 12 kt. The storm is expected to continue on this trajectory tonight, with a turn to the north expected tomorrow. Early next week, Rina or its remnants will accelerate northeastward between a mid-level ridge to its east and an upper-level trough to its west. The new track forecast is very similar to both the previous NHC forecast and the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 23.5N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 24.7N 54.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 26.5N 55.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1200Z 28.7N 55.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z 31.1N 54.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Pasch |
