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| #1155354 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 01.Oct.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 The center of Philippe has become exposed to the northwest of the large convective mass seen infrared satellite imagery. A very timely AMSR2 microwave overpass helped to pinpoint the center location around 0600 UTC, and since that time the center has become more apparent in the geostationary satellite imagery. Philippe is still producing a large area of convection with clouds tops colder than -80 deg C to the southeast of its center. The latest Dvorak satellite estimates range from 45 kt from SAB to 55 kt from TAFB. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with the earlier scatterometer data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Philippe again this morning. Philippe is moving a little faster toward the west overnight. A weak mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should begin to steer Philippe west-northwestward to northwestward by later today, and that motion is expected to continue into Monday. The track guidance has once more shifted westward during the first couple of days, which has again necessitated a westward shift in the NHC track forecast during that time. The new track forecast is a little closer to the northern Leeward Islands. It should be noted that the model guidance continues to show very little outward extent of tropical-storm-force winds over the western semicircle of Philippe through 48 hours, however given the typical track forecast uncertainty tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for a portion of the northern Leeward Islands later today. After 48 hours, Philippe is expected to turn northward as it moves around the western side of the ridge. Later in the forecast period, a mid-tropospheric trough over the western Atlantic should cause Philippe to turn north-northeastward. The global models and the SHIPS intensity guidance indicate that the west-northwesterly vertical shear over Philippe will remain strong during the next couple of days. Therefore, little change in strength is expected during that time. Later in the forecast period, the vertical shear could lessen somewhat allowing Philippe to strengthen. The intensity models are generally lower this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted downward but it remains at the upper end of guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands Monday and Monday night. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for a portion of that area later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 16.4N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 16.9N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.6N 59.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 19.2N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 20.4N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 21.9N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 25.5N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 28.9N 59.8W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
