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| #1155402 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 01.Oct.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 Despite continued northwesterly shear, a small area of deep convection has persisted to the south and southeast of the center of Rina this morning. The low-level center remains exposed in visible satellite images, and recent ASCAT data suggests the center is becoming less defined with weak winds noted on the southwest side of the circulation. Based on the scatterometer winds, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, with the strongest winds confined to the southeastern quadrant of the storm. Rina is still moving northwestward at 320/13 kt. The system is expected to turn more northward later today and tonight while it moves around the periphery of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The track models are in good agreement, and the updated NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one. The environmental conditions are forecast to remain hostile going forward, and Rina is forecast to gradually weaken over the next day or so due to the negative influences of moderate to strong wind shear and dry mid-level air. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Rina could become a post-tropical remnant low by tonight, and the system is forecast to open into a trough of low pressure and dissipate by late Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 25.3N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 26.8N 55.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1200Z 29.3N 54.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
