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| #1155454 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 01.Oct.2023) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEGINNING OVERNIGHT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO PHILIPPE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 59.0W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional tropical storm watches could be required tonight or on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 59.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A track toward the northwest is forecast through Monday followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), primarily east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday: Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches Rest of the Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas by Monday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake |
