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| #1155457 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 01.Oct.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rina Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 Rina is barely a tropical cyclone. Its associated sheared convection collapsed a few hours ago, and the fully exposed low-level center has continued to lose definition based on recent GOES derived motion wind (DMW) vectors. Assuming some weakening has occurred since the earlier scatterometer passes, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion of Rina is still northwestward (325/14 kt), but the shallow cyclone is expected to turn northward soon while moving around the western extent of a low-level ridge. The continued northwesterly shear and dry air in the surrounding environment are expected to limit convective development going forward, and Rina is likely to degenerate to a remnant low or open into a trough during the next 12-24 h. No notable changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 26.2N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 28.2N 55.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
