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| #1155458 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 01.Oct.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 The structure of Philippe has not changed much since this morning. A large area of deep convection remains in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone, with a small burst near the center. The initial wind speed is held at 45 kt, per the latest satellite classifications, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be inside the storm tonight. The southward progress of Philippe has thankfully stopped today, and recent fixes show it moving between west-northwest and northwest at about 6 kt. A building ridge well to the northeast should steer the storm generally northwestward tonight and Monday, with a turn to the north forecast on Tuesday while the system moves around the western periphery of the ridge. Eventually a faster north-northeastward motion is anticipated at long range as the storm enters the mid-latitudes. While the track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the east, this should not be interpreted as the end of any threat to the Leeward Islands with still some models near those islands. Notably, a very strong rain band on the southern side of Philippe will be very close to moving over the northern Leeward Islands, and it could turn out that rainfall and flooding would be the main hazard of the storm. There`s been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning from the last cycle, with strong shear near Philippe expected to limit intensification during the next couple of days. There remains a decent chance that the shear could relax by the middle of the week, allowing Philippe to become a hurricane after it recurves into the subtropical central Atlantic. Guidance has been inconsistent at long range with the storm, so the best course of action seems to be to hold the forecast steady to see if any notable trends emerge. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands Monday and Monday night while Philippe passes near or just northeast of the area, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Antigua and Barbuda. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should continue to monitor this system as additional watches or warnings could be required later today or tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall from Philippe could produce isolated to scattered flash flooding, particularly across Barbuda and Antigua, through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 16.4N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.0N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.7N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 18.7N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 19.9N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 21.4N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 23.1N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 26.9N 61.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 30.0N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
