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| #1155539 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 02.Oct.2023) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 AM AST Mon Oct 02 2023 ...CENTER OF PHILIPPE TO PASS NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... ...COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 60.0W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 60.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast to occur by late Tuesday, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), primarily east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday: Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches Rest of Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas beginning later today. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
