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| #1155742 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 AM 03.Oct.2023) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 03 2023 ...CENTER OF PHILIPPE PASSING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 63.9W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF ANGUILLA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Philippe. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 63.9 West. Philippe is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward motion late Wednesday through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to pass just north of the British Virgin Islands today and then move away from the northern Leeward Islands beginning tonight. However, the strongest winds and heaviest rains will likely occur in the islands to the southeast of the center. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Philippe could begin to strengthen a bit late this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts into early Wednesday: Anguilla southward to Montserrat, including St. Kitts and Nevis, and the British Virgin Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts to 12 inches. The remainder of the Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands: 1 to 4 inches The U.S. Virgin Islands and northeast Puerto Rico: 2 to 4 inches This rainfall would result in scattered flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area and possible within the watch area today. Strong gusty winds are also likely elsewhere in the Leeward Islands today. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
