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| #1155977 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 04.Oct.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023 Philippe has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm still resembles an elongated trough in satellite images with a north-south oriented area of deep convection extending a couple of hundred north and several hundred miles south of the center. Areas of heavy rain continue to linger near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Since the system appears to be steady in strength, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the earlier aicraft data. This wind speed estimate is also in line with the latest satellite intensity estimates. The storm is moving northward at 11 kt in the flow between a ridge over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low off the Florida coast. This northward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days, taking the center of the system across Bermuda in 36-48 hours. Philippe will likely turn northwestward into Maine and Atlantic Canada this weekend when another trough cuts off over the northeastern U.S. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Nearly all of the models show slow strengthening during the next 2 or 3 days, which seems to be due to baroclinic influences from the trough/low currently east of Florida. The mid- to upper-level trough/low will likely merge with Philippe in 48-60 hours, which should cause the system to develop frontal features and become extratropical after it passes Bermuda. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken once it moves inland over Maine and Atlantic Canada. The NHC intensity forecast also lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning Thursday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Heavy rainfall will begin to affect the island on Thursday. 2. Philippe is likely to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and eastern New England, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, this weekend. Regardless of Philippe`s intensity or structure, interests in those areas should monitor the storm`s progress and be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 23.8N 66.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 25.4N 66.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 28.4N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 31.9N 65.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 35.3N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 39.0N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 43.3N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 51.6N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
