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| #1156125 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 05.Oct.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 05 2023 Satellite imagery of Philippe shows little change in structure with the center still exposed to the west of a growing area of deep convection. Radar data from Bermuda indicate outer rain bands from the system are moving across Bermuda. However, the winds so far are below tropical storm force. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Philippe is moving northward at 14 kt. The storm is currently moving between an upper-level cutoff low off the Florida coast, and a ridge over the central Atlantic. This flow is expected to accelerate Philippe further northward during the next few days. The center of Philippe is expected to pass by Bermuda on Friday, and reach the coast of Maine and Atlantic Canada Saturday night or early Sunday. This forecast track has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous advisory, closer to the HCCA and ECMWF models. Philippe is behaving like a hybrid system. Even though the cyclone is facing strong wind shear and lower SSTs during the next couple of days, Philippe may pull most of its energy from an upper-level cutoff low just to its west. Due to these conditions, some intensification is predicted during the next day or so. Weakening is expected as Philippe moves inland over New England and Atlantic Canada this weekend. The official NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on the forecast for Philippe to become post-tropical by Saturday, and after coordination with National Weather Service offices in New England and the Canadian Hurricane Centre, the current plan is for hazards in New England and Atlantic Canada to be handled via local non-tropical statements and not issue tropical watches or warnings. We will continually assess this plan if the forecast evolves and tropical watches or warnings become warranted. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning early Friday morning, and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the island into early Friday. This could produce flash flooding. 2. Philippe is expected to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and New England as a post-tropical cyclone this weekend. Regardless of Philippe`s intensity or structure, interests in those areas should be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall and monitor statements from their local weather office. The rainfall could produce isolated to scattered instances of urban and flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 28.2N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 30.5N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 33.6N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 36.7N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 40.5N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1200Z 45.7N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 09/0000Z 49.5N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
