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| #1157230 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 13.Oct.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sean Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 500 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2023 Sean's satellite appearance continues to deteriorate this afternoon. Convection has waned with warming cloud tops to the east of the exposed low-level center. Sean is noticeably struggling with drier air impacting the system and the continued westerly wind shear. Any convection that tries to develop near the center is sheared off and dissipates. Satellite intensity estimates this afternoon range from 25 to 40 kt. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, but this could be generous given the waning convection the last several hours. As Sean moves through the drier and more stable airmass, further weakening is anticipated. Simulated satellite from the ECMWF and GFS depict that Sean may have occasional burst of convection the next day or so, but will continue to become less organized. This should cause Sean to become a post-tropical remnant low this weekend. However, recent trends suggest this could occur as early as tomorrow. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, near the consensus intensity aids. The tropical storm has continued to move west-northwestward today, around 290 at 10 kt. A turn northwestward has been forecast to occur today, but the center has continued west-northwestward, which has resulted in a westward shift of the NHC forecast track. The forecast still calls for the northwestward motion to begin later this evening and continue over the next day or so. As Sean becomes a remnant low and further weakens, the system will turn more west-northwestward again and dissipate into an open trough in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 14.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.8N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.9N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.7N 45.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 18.4N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 18.8N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly |
