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| #1157306 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 14.Oct.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sean Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 500 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2023 Sean has been producing bursts of deep convection overnight that have obscured the center of the cyclone. The bursts do not appear to have much organization, and the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from about 25 to 40 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is kept at 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak CI number of T2.5 (35 kt). However, this could be generous. Sean is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at about 7 kt. The cyclone should turn northwestward today around the southwestern periphery of a narrow ridge over the eastern-central Atlantic. A turn back toward the west-northwest is anticipated on Sunday when Sean weakens and becomes more vertically shallow. There is a fair amount of spread in the track guidance that is related to how quickly Sean weakens. The ECMWF which is the weaker of the dynamical models takes the cyclone on a more southerly track. The NHC forecast is a little south of the previous advisory, especially at 48 and 60 hours, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Sean is forecast to encounter an increasingly dry mid-level environment during the next couple of days, which should cause gradual weakening during that time. The global model guidance indicates that Sean will struggle to produce deep convection by later today and Sunday, and it seems likely that the system will degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The circulation is expected to open up into a trough in 60 to 72 hours, and dissipation is indicated in the official forecast by day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.4N 43.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.1N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.9N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 17.5N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 17.9N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z 18.1N 50.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
