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| #1157338 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 14.Oct.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Sean Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2023 Sean continues to have a lackluster satellite appearance, with intermittent burst of convection near the center this morning. Earlier noted convective bursts were fairly short lived, and didn't have much organization. Latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 25 to 35 kt. With final-T numbers from SAB and TAFB both T1.5, with CI numbers of T1.5/T2.5, respectively. Given a blend of these values and the current satellite imagery, the initial intensity for this advisory is lowered to 30 kt. Sean is moving northwestward or 305 degrees at about 7 kt. The cyclone should continue to move northwestward today around the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge. On Sunday, a turn back toward the west-northwest is anticipated as Sean continues to weaken into a more shallow vortex and thus will be steered by the low-level wind flow. How quickly Sean weakens will depict when the system turns back west-northwestwards. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Sean is moving into an increasingly dry mid-level airmass, which is well depicted on GOES-16 water mid-level water vapor imagery. This more stable and dry environment should cause additional weakening during the next couple of days. Global models depict that Sean will struggle to produce deep convection by this evening and into Sunday. The time of the system degenerating into a remnant low has been moved up to 24 hours, but that could occur even sooner. The circulation is expected to open up into a trough in 60 hours, and dissipation is now indicated in the official forecast by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.0N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 16.6N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.2N 46.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 17.7N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 17.9N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly |
