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| #1158593 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 23.Oct.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212023 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 The area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea that the NHC has been monitoring for the past few days has developed a well-defined circulation. Convection is well-organized and has persisted for over 12 hours, thus the disturbance is upgraded to Tropical Depression Twenty-One. Scatterometer satellite data from a few hours ago indicate that the intensity is around 25 kt. This is also confirmed by the most recent Dvorak estimates provided by TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is estimated at an uncertain 280/4. The tropical depression is on the western periphery of the upper level ridge, which should keep it on a generally westward track over the next few days. On this track, this system will be making landfall in southern Nicaragua later this evening or tonight. The tropical depression is in a favorable environment with low wind shear values and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, no strengthening is forecast since the depression is expected to move inland soon. The depression will weaken quickly over Nicaragua and dissipation is likely to occur tomorrow. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rains from the depression will continue to impact portions of Nicaragua through Tuesday night with heavy rainfall spreading into Honduras during the day on Tuesday. This rainfall is likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 11.6N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 12.0N 84.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Delgado/Cangialosi |
