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| #1158629 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 23.Oct.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212023 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 It has been a challenge to find the center of the depression this evening. Surface observations from Bluefields Airport in Nicaragua indicated that the center of the depression likely moved northeast of the observing station earlier this evening, but pressures in the area were not particularly low. Since then, a robust mid-level circulation has been visible in shortwave-infrared imagery, but it isn`t clear if this extends to the surface. ASCAT data is expected within the next couple of hours, which should provide clarity over whether the center of the depression has reformed under the mid-level circulation, or if has already moved inland. TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates still support an intensity near 25 kt. Once inland, the depression should quickly weaken and dissipate. However, its worth noting that if the center is still over water and remains there for any period of time overnight, some slight strengthening could occur since the environment is otherwise favorable for intensification. The long-term estimated motion is around 310/4 kt, but this is highly uncertain. The depression, or its remnants, are forecast to continue northwestward tonight, and then generally head westward toward the eastern Pacific after that. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rains from the depression will continue to impact portions of Nicaragua through Tuesday night with heavy rainfall spreading into Honduras during the day on Tuesday. This rainfall is likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 12.4N 83.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 13.1N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
