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| #11587 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 08.Oct.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 08 2004 AN AIR FORCE PLANE CONTINUED TO CHECK MATTHEW AND FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 50 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ASYMMETRIC AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING BUT BECAUSE MATTHEW DOES NOT HAVE COMPLETE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THE SHEAR COULD BE LESS DETRIMENTAL. AT THIS TIME...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 060 DEGREES OR EAST-NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN. MATTHEW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE BETWEEN THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON TURNING THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT THEY MAY BE REFLECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW OVER TEXAS. I AM NOT VERY CONFORTABLE TO BE AWAY FROM GLOBAL MODELS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BUT I WOULD RATHER FOLLOW CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST EARLY SATURDAY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 24.7N 93.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 25.5N 92.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 26.5N 90.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 27.8N 89.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 29.5N 87.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 33.6N 86.5W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
