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| #1161614 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:48 PM 17.Nov.2023) TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 The broad disturbance has failed to become better organized today. The associated convection remains displaced well to the east of the surface trough axis by strong southwesterly shear. The earlier aircraft reconnaissance data showed the disturbance was only producing peak winds of 25-30 kt. Given its lack of a well-defined surface center, poor convective organization, and the continued hostile environmental conditions it faces, this system is no longer expected to become a tropical cyclone. Additionally, the risk of sustained tropical-storm-force winds on land has greatly diminished, and all tropical storm watches have been discontinued. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The remnants of this disturbance are expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough and merge with a frontal system over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean later this weekend. Although tropical cyclone formation is not expected, there is high confidence that heavy rainfall and flooding will remain a serious threat across southeastern Cuba and Hispaniola through Sunday. Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 14 inches, are expected across portions of these areas, which is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rains from this disturbance will impact portions of southeastern Cuba and southern Hispaniola through Sunday. This rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Lighter amounts across Jamaica, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 20.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
