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| #11700 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 09.Oct.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004 STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS AGAIN STRIPPED MATTHEW OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE AMPLE SHIP REPORTS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR NOW. WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY SEPARATING FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MATTHEW TO STRENGTHEN APPRECIABLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN MATTHEW WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL AS A DEPRESSION. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM MATTHEW CONTINUES TO BE COASTAL SURGE AND INLAND RAIN FLOODING. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY...WHILE THERE WAS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE...MATTHEW TURNED EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPER LAYER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. NOW THAT MATTHEW IS ONLY A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL THE EASTWARD MOTION HAS STOPPED...AND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS MATTHEW HAS MOVED ESSENTIALLY NORTHWARD. AS CONVECTION COMES AND GOES THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL JUMPS TO THE LEFT AND STEPS TO THE RIGHT...BUT SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG...THE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION SHOULD PREVAIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND UKMET GUIDANCE... AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE EASTWARD JOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 27.7N 91.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 29.0N 90.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 30.9N 90.4W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 11/1200Z 33.3N 90.6W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 12/0000Z 35.5N 91.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
