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| #11777 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 10.Oct.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER IS INLAND...AND THAT THE SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THEREFORE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM MATTHEW IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED FROM WEST TO EAST...MAKING THE CENTER SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TRACK. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE GENERALLY NORTHWARD...010/9. MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 29.9N 90.8W 30 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 11/0000Z 31.4N 90.4W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 11/1200Z 33.4N 90.4W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 12/0000Z 34.9N 90.7W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 12/1200Z 36.0N 91.0W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
