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#11782 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 10.Oct.2004) TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152004 1500Z SUN OCT 10 2004 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 66.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 100SE 175SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 66.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 66.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.0N 66.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 36.6N 65.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 39.5N 64.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...250NE 175SE 175SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 41.1N 64.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...250NE 175SE 175SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 44.0N 62.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 66.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH |