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| #1185011 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:09 PM 18.Jun.2024) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...DISTURBANCE REMAINS LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 92.6W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * the Texas coast from Port O`Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande * the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 92.6 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the Gulf coast of Mexico by Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. The disturbance is quite large, and satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) north of the center. The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by tonight or Wednesday. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur across parts of Deep South Texas on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Wednesday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
