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#1186499 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:38 PM 28.Jun.2024)

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the
central tropical Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized deep
convection in bands around the center. In addition, visible
satellite images show that the circulation has tightened, and the
center now appears well-defined. Thus, a tropical depression has
formed, and the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the
latest Dvorak classifications. Development this far east in late
June is unusual, in fact, there have only been a few storms in
history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical
Atlantic this early in the year.

The depression is moving westward at 15 kt. A strong subtropical
ridge to the north of the system should keep it moving relatively
quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days.
The system might gain a little more latitude toward the end of the
forecast period when it nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
There is a fair amount of spread in the model guidance, especially
in the day 3-5 time frame, due to differences in the strength of the
ridge and the aforementioned weakness. The NHC track forecast lies
near the consensus aids and is slightly south of the middle of the
guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, the system is expected
to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday and
track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the
middle of next week.

Typically, the atmospheric environment is unfavorable for
intensification in this portion of the Atlantic basin in late June.
However, the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear
conducive for steady strengthening during the next few days.
Accordingly, the official forecast calls for strengthening and shows
the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday
and then a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. It
should be noted that some of the model guidance is quite aggressive
and a fair amount are higher than the official forecast. For
example, the hurricane regional models show the system becoming a
major hurricane and the GFS model shows the system deepening below
970 mb prior to reaching the Windward Islands.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen and be a
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or
Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds,
and dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands later tonight
or early Saturday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.


INIT 28/2100Z 9.1N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 9.4N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 10.1N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 10.7N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 11.3N 54.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 13.0N 61.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

Forecaster Cangialosi