|
Show Selection: |
| #1186799 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 PM 30.Jun.2024) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032024 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Aircraft reconnaissance data and satellite-derived winds indicate that the low-pressure system that emerged over the southeastern Bay of Campeche this morning has become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical depression, the third tropical cyclone of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Conventional satellite imagery shows developing curved bands in the northwest and northeast quadrants with a recent deep burst of convection near the surface center. Based on the wind data, this advisory`s initial intensity is set at 30 kt. The surrounding environment appears conducive for some strengthening before the tropical cyclone moves inland early Monday. Subsequently, the official intensity forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm before landfall and this agrees with the global models and the SHIPS statistical guidance. Afterward, the circulation is very likely to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico by Monday night. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/10 kt, along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge over the north-central Gulf coast. The depression should continue in this general motion and is expected to approach the coast of eastern Mexico tonight and move inland early Monday. The official NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the global models. Based on the forecast, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast of Mexico within the state of Veracruz. The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which will result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico and into Monday. Key message: 1. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across eastern Mexico into Monday, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 19.7N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 20.0N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST 24H 01/1800Z 20.2N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
