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Nothing in the Atlantic currently for the next week or two.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Beryl) , Major: 320 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 320 (Idalia) Major: 320 (Idalia)
 
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#1186821 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 PM 30.Jun.2024)
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL CLOSING IN ON THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 57.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 260 MI...480 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the island of Trinidad.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Trinidad

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d`Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches
or warnings may be required tonight or on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 57.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A continued quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to
move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the
southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through
Wednesday.

Data from both the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength
are likely during the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to
remain an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall
in the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early Monday morning. Potentially catastrophic wind
damage is expected where the eyewall or core of Beryl moves through
portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core
in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting late tonight for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for
parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through
Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the
Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable
areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts
of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin