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#1186844 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:45 PM 30.Jun.2024)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

There are a few pieces of evidence that show that Beryl is in the
middle of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The clear eye seen on
infrared satellite earlier today has become a little more clouded
over during the past few hours. In addition, data from the last leg
through Beryl from both the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunters indicated concentric eyewalls, which also matches current
radar imagery we are receiving from Barbados Meteorological Service.
An earlier SSMIS microwave pass at 2150 UTC also showed a formative
outer moat forming outside the small inner eyewall. In response to
the evolving structure, 700-mb flight-level winds from the NOAA and
Air Force planes are a little lower than observed earlier today, and
the latest round of Dvorak estimates also support a slightly lower
intensity. However, the initial intensity will remain at 115 kt for
this advisory, given a couple of dropsonde observations in the NE
quadrant of Beryl`s inner eyewall.

Aircraft fixes indicate Beryl continues to move quickly westward
at 280/17 kt. There isn`t much change with the track forecast
philosophy, as a extensive mid-level ridge poleward of Beryl should
maintain its westward to west-northwest motion for the next few days
as it move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern
Caribbean Sea. The ridge does become positioned more northwest of
Beryl towards the end of the forecast period, potentially allowing
the hurricane to slow down gradually once it reaches the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The track guidance this cycle is quite
similar to the previous cycle, and thus the latest NHC track
forecast is also quite similar to the prior advisory.

Given the evolution to Beryl`s inner core structure tonight due to
the aforementioned ERC, it would not be surprising to see a
short-term fluctuation down in Beryl`s peak winds, though Beryl is
expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as it crosses through
the Windward Islands tomorrow morning. In fact, there could also be
a bit of restrengthening after the ERC completes in the northwestern
Caribbean, and that is reflected in the short-term forecast. After
48 hours, a subtle upper-level trough to Beryl`s north could induce
a bit more westerly vertical wind shear over the hurricane, and some
gradual weakening continues to be shown after 48 hours. However, it
should be emphasized that Beryl is forecast to remain a significant
hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region, though
more prominent weakening is likely if Beryl crosses the Yucatan
between days 4-5 as shown in the latest forecast. The NHC intensity
forecast remains in good agreement with the consensus aids, and is
only slightly adjusted from the prior advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands tomorrow morning.
This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas
should listen to local government and emergency management officials
for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. These preparations
should have been completed today as significant impacts will begin
tomorrow morning.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-
threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl
passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk
of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada
beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect
for much of the Windward Islands.

3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the
Windward Islands through Monday.

4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch is
in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should monitor its progress and additional Watches and Warnings will
likely be required this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 11.5N 58.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 12.2N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 14.8N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 15.9N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 16.7N 75.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 17.6N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 20.7N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Papin