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| #1186849 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:09 PM 30.Jun.2024) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032024 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are now near 35 kt so the system is being named at this time. The tropical cyclone continues on a slightly north of due west heading with an initial motion estimate of 280/11 kt. A strong mid- level ridge associated with a high pressure system centered over the southern U.S. Plains should continue to steer the system mainly westward through tomorrow, i.e. until dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction and about in the middle of the objective guidance. Since the cyclone should make landfall within the next few hours, little additional strengthening is anticipated. Chris should weaken quickly after moving inland and dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which will result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico tonight and into Monday. Key messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across eastern Mexico into Monday, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected overnight in the tropical storm warnings area in Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 20.0N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 20.3N 97.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
